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Click here for more info. Everything is unique to your specific league type, your specific draft, and the specific season in which youre drafting. Early on, theyll just let the draft fall to them, and try to scoop up value where they can. That may be suboptimal for BBM3 given the recent infusion of rushing talent into the league as well as Underdogs half-PPR best ball model. I often think of it as one of those balance scales a RB drafted in the 2nd round clearly should not be equivalent to a RB drafted in the 12th round. But then does a RB drafted in the 5th round plus a RB drafted in the 7th round equal a RB drafted in the 2nd round? It really seems as though if you want a truly dominant (top-0.3% team) you really need to land at least one power-law TE. But drafts dont exist in a vacuum. The "Big Board But Superflex" closes the day before the 2022 NFL Draft (April 28th), so now is the time to fire with most of the free agency moves in the rear view. The best ball space continues to grow every year, and our friends at Underdog Fantasy recently launched their first big You just draft your team and then forget about it or at least until Week 17 when its time to collect your winnings. You can either draft your fifth WR before Round 10 or wait until Rounds 12-15 the win rate was the same. This week we take a look at the Octopus Strategy! Interestingly, taking your QB1 in Round 3 (4.5%) provided the highest advance rate of any strategy. The problem is if you have 3-4 people getting unique in the same draft you allow someone else to get unique by pairing unique 1st round player combinations. But at the same time, this is just about perfectly in line with our historical data from BestBall10s which goes back to 2015, and is not too different from Underdogs format minus two extra draft rounds in BestBall10s, which is mostly negated by team defense in the starting lineup, and then full-point PPR vs. half-point PPR scoring. Although I have Gabriel Davis slightly ahead in my rankings, I should probably take Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton for the stack, and maybe also Albert Okwuegbunam or Tim Patrick a little later as well.. Favorite: Orioles (-141, bet $141 to win $100) Underdog: Reds (+120, bet $100 to win $120) Over/under: 8.5. And even more curiously, this was in spite of the fact that the vast majority of those teams had Travis Kelce who scored exactly zero fantasy points in the semifinals. So, what happens if you draft five WRs with your first five picks? This week we take a look at the Octopus Strategy! In a best ball league, week-to-week consistency does not matter nearly as much as a high weekly ceiling. by Alex Baker We all want to a win $1 million in NFL best ball fantasy football, tournaments like Underdogs Best Ball Mania III, but it is not an easy task like it is with traditional NFL fantasy football. But again, I worry about the small sample size, and how Week 15 juggernauts like Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, and Brandin Cooks may be heavily influencing our results. 2B - Double. Hayden Winks explored this concept in more detail here. I usually wont be drafting a QB3. A Deeper Explanation. Odds updated Tuesday at 3:23 AM ET. For that reason, when doing multiple drafts simultaneously, I prefer to enter only slow drafts (8-hour clock) and set a timer on my phone to go off every 5.5 hours. In any approach, I wont often draft a TE3. You can use your Underdog Fantasy bonus code on any of the tournaments offered on the platform. WebUnderdog Fantasy is a fantasy sports operator best known for its best ball contests. And maybe landing two is even more optimal, as we alluded to earlier. (Maybe draft an RB3 earlier than that, but only if hes a massive ADP faller. Drafting one in the first five rounds was still slightly -EV last year. But how can we properly identify players with league-winning upside the top power law players like Andrews, Kupp, and Chase ex ante? And unlike the QB position, your second TE can also contribute in the flex. Thats an unreal difference Barkley hurt you more than any two players might have helped you. Conversely, Zero-RB (zero RBs in the first 3-4 rounds) or Modified Zero RB (one RB selected in the first two rounds, zero RBs over the next several rounds) becomes a far more viable strategy. Heres one example: Jonathan Taylor is most-frequently paired with the players being drafted around the 2.12/3.01 turn. But hes also averaged 20.1 FPG in the six games Cook has missed. For instance, I think Rob Gronkowski (ADP: Round 10) and Antonio Brown (Round 18) are ideal tournament picks at current ADP. For instance, last year in early March, I wrote this: "Wes Huber thinks Amon-Ra St. Brown is an ideal late-round draft pick in best ball and a borderline Round 1 talent (NFL Draft). TEs are where I want to be underweight. And not only should you be team-stacking, you should also consider game-stacking in tournament rounds (Weeks 15-17, with a heavy emphasis on Week 17). Underdog is Half PPR, starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, And because theyre scarcer, theyre more valuable. Mike Beers discussed this in more detail here. We also need to consider when we should target the position. Where did you draft them? Only 3 of the top-60 players in fantasy points over superflex replacement were TEs last season, a finding that was similar to what I found in QBs Are Undervalued On Underdog Fantasy. What mattered more was owning a top power law player like Andrews, Kupp, or Chase. A quantity over quality approach at the RB position is very much viable in best ball, while such a strategy is not at all viable in start/sit. I also spent some time discussing which positions were more valuable (and more conducive to producing league-winners) than others and why. At least 5 of them are eliminated with each pick that you make and as the balance of the roster takes shape. After only the highest-tier of RBs (Round 1-2), the WR position is simply more valuable than the RB position in best ball. And you should only ever be drafting two or three QBs in total. But also, among the top-20 highest-scoring RBs of the week, we find names like: Duke Johnson (RB1), Jeff Wilson (RB3), James Robinson (RB4), Devin Singletary (RB6), DOnta Foreman (RB11), Ameer Abdullah (RB13), DeeJay Dallas (RB14), Sony Michel (RB15), Craig Reynolds (RB17), Justin Jackson (RB18), and Tony Pollard (RB20). And thats e.g. For instance, Tyler Lockett will always rank higher in our best ball rankings than in our start/sit rankings. When it comes to winning fantasy championships, UPSIDE IS EVERYTHING. Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers Odds and Betting Lines. 7. I highly recommend reading that piece in its entirety: Upside Wins Championships. Why? Teams drafting exactly two QBs fared much better than teams drafting 3-5 in the semifinals or finals. Okay, you can neglect the position for a while, and worry more about strengthening your RBs. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. And the ancillary data does seem to support this notion a little better, with Round 8-9 QBs Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts winding up on a similar percentage of finals teams to Patrick Mahomes (ADP: Round 3) and Josh Allen (Round 4), who both ranked outside of the top-10 highest-owned players overall. After that, youre better off saving your WR picks for the final three rounds. So, if drafting in a traditional best ball league, 6-7 WRs may be optimal. Simply, QBs are more valuable in half-point PPR leagues. Instead, RBs (and especially highest-end RBs) are simply more valuable in Underdogs half-point PPR format. But with that in mind, I do think these results solidify my preferred 50%/25%/25% RB strategy I outlined earlier. Our Draft Kit Pro includes all the content you need to dominate your draft, best ball, dynasty, and more. Really try to push the limits of this strategy, like Murphy was encouraging us to on our livestream. With this, I think its fair to use a 3:2 WR:RB ratio for most of the draft. TE2: Round 3-4, otherwise extremely flat from Rounds 7-20. And, with backup RBs in particular, they do tend to post their best games in the final weeks of the season (as injuries start to add up). But in DFS GPPs and in best ball tournaments, stacking is of massive importance. And, even more interestingly, but on a much smaller sample (just 3.0% of all teams) drafting your QB2 in Round 3 (4.4%) or Round 4 (3.5%) provided the 2nd- and 3rd-best advance rates of any QB strategy. I found that the QB24 on a given week scored 10.4 fantasy points on average, so this metric takes all the weekly fantasy points scored above that 10.4 points to create fantasy points over superflex replacement. And 1st place should be what youre aiming at; the payout structure in Best Ball Mania is very top-heavy 1st place gets $2 million, 11th place gets only 0.5% of that ($10,000). Don't forget to subscribe, then join our Discord and the official Underdog Discord as well!. Not only are we going to even out our bye week scoring (where the QB3 will practically be guaranteed two startable weeks), but this QB3 will also be out-scoring our QB1 and QB2 on occasion even in the non-bye weeks due to weekly variance and injuries. Conversely, punting TE until the double-digit rounds means you now have to make up for your lack of quality at the position with a quantity approach (by drafting 3-4). Upside is important, OK. We should be swinging for the fences with nearly every pick we make and especially in the later rounds, OK. We want to draft power law players, OK. But to what extent? 2) Just like how some players will be worth a lot more in best ball, certain positions are going to be worth more as well. WRs offer the most spike weeks at any position, and especially so at cost. The tournament is 50% filled right now, but we just witnessed some wild moves that changed the percentage of teams who are stacked properly. Instead of trying to get all 9 roster spots perfectly correct, if youre properly utilizing stacks, you may only need to get 5 things right. But teams waiting until Round 11 or later, advanced 2.5% of the time. Draft TE3 in Rounds 14-18. There is no superflex data to build on, so its largely instinct vs. instinct. And its extremely rare for a top power law player (on the level of Mark Andrews, Cooper Kupp, or JaMarr Chase last year) to be a QB. Favorite: Blue Jays (-166, bet $166 to win $100) Underdog: Giants (+141, bet $100 to win $141) Over/under: 9. Players like Alvin Kamara, James Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Kareem Hunt, Saquon Barkley, Terry McLaurin, and many others were all massive league-winners in their rookie seasons. Given the small one-year sample size with our Underdog data, Id be inclined to side with our BestBall10 data (which suggests drafting TEs earlier than in Underdog) if not for the fact that tight ends are slightly less valuable in half-point PPR. We hope you enjoy this FREE article preview! But also, if I can push back on this narrative just a little bit, I will say that TE has historically been one of the best positions to find value (and even power law players) extremely late George Kittle (2018), Eric Ebron (2018), Mark Andrews (2019), Darren Waller (2019), Logan Thomas (2020), Robert Tonyan (2020), Dalton Schultz (2021), Rob Gronkowski (2021), etc. If youre going to be drafting a high number of teams, its important to diversify the players youre taking, especially early in drafts. And of course, we should be stacking these QBs with their WRs and TEs for positive correlation. Amon-Ra St. Brown). Ill go ahead and give you the (paraphrased) summary, but I highly encourage you to read it in full. The fewer unstacked players you have on your team the better. In a typical 12-team 1QB start/sit league, we shouldnt expect more than 16 QBs to be drafted or rostered at any given time, and, at most, 24 QBs. 6. All 30 MLB teams are playing tonight. If we have really good backs, then four is viable. But theres no question that getting sniped on your ideal QB hurts you in the one-week bonus rounds. Gone are the days of getting Year 2Patrick MahomesandLamar Jacksonin the double-digit rounds; the market is now better at pricing young, high-upside QBs. The DFS sign-up bonus that Underdog Fantasy provides is a 100% matched deposit bonus, of up to $100. Double Down, Ohio! And I do think 2021 could have been an outlier year for TEs, and that alone could explain the discrepancy. And, often enough, the highest-scoring QB of the week is capable of supporting multiple high-scoring pass-catchers like in Week 1 of last season when Tom Brady finished as (merely) the overall QB5 (29.2 fantasy points), but Rob Gronkowski (25.0), Antonio Brown (21.2), and Chris Godwin (19.0) finished as the TE1, WR9, and WR13 of the week. These are beatable on many levels and should act as your cash teams along the same lines as how you would play 50/50s and Double-Ups in DFS. Similarly, in a tournament-style best ball league, 240 points in Week 17 as opposed to Week 4 could be the difference between you making $1,000 and $2 million. (And, as well see a little bit later, a late-round RB2 approach may actually be optimal in best ball tournaments.). Well be starting a quarterback in the superflex spot in about 66% of our weeks depending on our build. First place prizes range from $8 to $2 million. The Nationals are an underdog (+191 moneyline odds to win) when they square off against the Mariners (-233). The three most valuable players in any league are typically RBs. Drafting the right rookies before the NFL Draft (when theyll become far more expensive) is a massive edge. For instance, Alexander Mattison is probabilistically a minus-EV pick, only cracking your starting lineup in the 1-2 games Dalvin Cook misses. Obviously, it increases your ceiling the top power-law WR in any given week (which is also typically the top power-law player in any given week) is usually catching passes from the highest-scoring QB of the week. Underdog has multiple offerings, so you can find whichever format works best for you. In last years Best Ball Primer & Strategy Guide I wrote 7,000 words explaining the best ball format and how to optimally game it so that it was nearly impossible for you not to profit. If youre right, this could really push your team over the top as you should be stacked everywhere else due to the savings in draft capital. 1 or No. The dots below the black line represent the best values. This is a very unique draft style that has you draft 1 Quarterback, 8 running backs, 8 wide receivers and 1 tight end! It was, how do I make an amazingly high-upside team?, Elsewhere he explained, The urge to advance in best ball is so rooted in our minds that even sharp players play sub-optimally Personally I don't care about the advance rate of an individual player on my roster. But then again I mean, you could get really weird with it. This strategy undoubtedly hurts your odds of making it to the quarterfinals, but that may very well be offset by the upside 1QB teams offer in the tournament rounds.

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