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The Associated Presss midterm survey also found that independents broke in favor of Democrats by nearly 20 points. 10/05/2022 04:30 AM EDT. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson was the only Republican in a race we rated as competitive who won independent voters, besting Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by a three-point margin.[98]. The chamber's Democratic supermajority increased from 31-9 to 32-8. As a result of the 2022 elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority in the chamber. recent announcements that they will seek re-election, all incumbent senators up for re-election in 2022 have made their decisions. So theres a good chance that states will be at least a bit redder in 2022 than they were in 2020. He was re-elected to represent District 13 in 2020 following an unsuccessful presidential campaign. Unlike Manchin and Tester, three-term Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown has already announced he will run for reelection in 2024. Former President Donald Trump (R) appointed Walker to the Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition in 2018. Bidens best numbers came in exit polling in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the president's approval was at 46% in each. The previous two Senate electionsheld in 2018 and 2020were both decided by 2.4 percentage points. Looking ahead to 2022, its less likely well see the Senate and House move in different directions, as Republicans have only two Biden-won Senate seats to defend, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which are states Biden won by less than 2 points, meaning Democrats have little in the way of easy pickings. Just 17 percent of Americans said they were satisfied with the way things were going in the country, 68 percent of voters said the condition of the nations economy was either not so good or poor, and a majority of Americans disapproved of President Joe Bidens job performance. "[35], Demings was elected to the U.S. House in 2016, representing Florida's 10th Congressional District. Ahead of the election, Democrats held one of those seats while Republicans held five, including Pennsylvania, the only seat to change party hands. The FiveThirtyEight election model finds that in 70 out of 100 election simulations, Democrats emerge from 2022 in the majority. After losing the Republican Senate primary in 2010, Lisa Murkowski successfully ran for re-election as a write-in candidate, becoming the second senator in U.S. history to do so. Sen. Ron Johnson promised Wisconsin voters in 2016 that he would retire; he may face an uphill climb if he breaks that promise. Rubio was a member of the Florida House of Representatives from 2000 to 2008, serving as majority leader from 2003 to 2006 and House speaker from 2006 to 2008. In Arizona, Kelly ran ahead of Biden by 8 points. For more on candidates' backgrounds and key messages, see below. And although the incumbency advantage is smaller than it once was, some of the strongest-performing candidates, such as Rubio and New Hampshire Democrat Maggie Hassan, were incumbents. Senator, Marco has advanced commonsense, conservative ideas that address the issues Americans face. Contact Ballotpedia at editor@ballotpedia.org for access to earlier data. In 2018, he was elected 58% to 41% on a joint ticket with incumbent Governor Tom Wolf (D). Statewide elections in Nevada in 2016 and 2018 were decided by five percentage points or fewer. Click here for primary election competitiveness statistics, including the number of open seats and contested incumbents in 2022. In 2016, Hassan defeated Ayotte by 0.1 percentage points. Incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R)who first took office in 2005did not seek re-election, which made this an open seat race. All twenty-eight incumbents who ran for re-election won. columns: 3; -webkit-columns: 1; The following table compared U.S. Senate race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections prior to the November 2022 elections. Prior to serving in the U.S. House, Budd worked as an investment analyst and owner of a gun range and store. The filing deadline for this election was November 19, 2021. Four of those seven states had Senate seats up for election in 2022. Four of the 34 seats up for election in 2022 changed party control the last time they were up for election. "[63][64], Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general, said the election "[was] about the economy, fiscal responsibility and the safety and security of this nation." [52], Time's Elliott said the state's Latino population would play an important role in the election's outcome. It is the percentage of people polled who responded favorably toward the work of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito. Warnock defeated Loeffler in the runoff election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Georgia in the U.S. Senate since 2005. [28] To view a full list of these endorsements, click here. A penalty of five points is a big number in todays polarized era. "[78] Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Vance.[81]. Sen. Mark Kelly (D) Kelly, 57, will face the ballot less than two years after Arizonans first sent him to represent the Grand Canyon State in the Senate. Gov. Still, another feature of modern American politics is exceptionally close races. Republicans needed a net pickup of one seat to gain control. The bipartisan infrastructure deal Ohios Sen. In the end, Bidens approval in exit polling among voters who turned out to be higher than polling predicted, and every Democratic candidate ran ahead of him. The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. They didnt punish Democrats for Bidens job performance and were uncomfortable putting the GOP in control. Research: Josh Altic Vojsava Ramaj The three candidates advanced from the top-four primary held on August 16, 2022, the first time Alaska used such a system in a Senate race since voters there approved it in 2020. On paper, Republican Senate candidates ought to have been fairly competitive in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Among women, inflation was the top concern for 46 percent of respondents, while abortion was close behind at 34 percent. [51], Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected to the U.S. Senate, took office in 2017 after defeating Heck (R) 47.1% to 44.7%. She announced she would not caucus with Republicans. U.S. Rep. Ted Budd (R) defeated former state supreme court justice Cheri Beasley (D) and seven other candidates in the general election for U.S. Senate in North Carolina on November 8, 2022. Meanwhile, in the two outlier midterms, Clintons average job-approval rating was 65 percent in 1998, while George W. Bushs was 62 percent in 2002. Democrats see it as a possible pickup, with GOP Senator Pat Toomey retiring. See also Class I Senators by Senator's Last Name. A special election for city attorney was held on June 7, 2022. Sen. Maggie Hassan, the Democrat who won reelection in New Hampshire, meanwhile, won a similar share of independents: 54 percent of the group that made up a plurality of voters. On this page, you will find information on the following: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. Senate election results. Incumbent: Democrat Sherrod Brown. Ohio is simply not the quintessential swing state it once was; dating back to the 2014 election cycle, Democrats have won just one out of 14 statewide contests in Ohio and that was a popular incumbent (Sen. Sherrod Brown) running in a blue-wave election year (2018).[98]. He could be the GOPs hero who turns out the full Trump coalition and expands a populist party that is reaching out to minority voters. [92], The 2020 and 2016 presidential elections in Wisconsin were both decided by less than one percentage point. Beasley also worked as an assistant public defender and a partner at McGuireWoods LLP. Ballotpedia features 409,789 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. This is, in part, because all 435 seats are up in each House election, whereas only about one-third of Senate seats (and roughly two-thirds of states) are up. "If Mitch McConnell retakes the Senate, he wont hesitate to bring a national abortion ban bill to a vote," Cortez Masto said. Moreover, Senate elections are statewide contests where incumbents have sometimes had a larger edge than their House counterparts, in part because a distinct personal brand can still somewhat override trends running against the incumbents party. Incumbent Mark Kelly (D) defeated Blake Masters (R) in the general election for one of Arizona's U.S. Senate seats on November 8, 2022. All of the Senate contests both sides consider the most competitive will be in states that Joe Biden won in 2020, albeit in most cases narrowly. Georgia and Arizona had seats up for election in 2022 that were up for special election in 2020. Charlie Crist (I) with 49% of the vote. Fetterman served as Pennsylvanias lieutenant governor. And while Democrats are headed for some losses in the House, they may lose an unusually small number of seats there, too.[98]. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), in response to a federal court order, directed that the primary for state legislative offices be held on August 2, 2022. The North Carolina State Board of Elections announced that candidate filing, having been suspended by the state supreme court in December 2021, would resume on February 24, 2022, and conclude on March 4, 2022. The next biggest gap came in Arizona, where Sen. Mark Kelly defeated GOP challenger Blake Masters by 16 points with the crucial voting bloc. Democrats were not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump (R) won in 2020. In Pennsylvania's 2018 senate race, incumbent Bob Casey Jr. (D) defeated Lou Barletta (R) 56% to 43%. "Strategists anticipate about 15% to 20% of the electorate to identify as Hispanic or Latinoand could be even bigger as both sides are working to register new voters," Elliot said. That geography could provide a critical boost for beleaguered Democrats in an era when both parties are finding it more difficult to win Senate races in states that usually vote the other way for president. Sen. Harry Reid (D) held the seat from 1987 to 2017. The election filled the Class III Senate seat held by Alex Padilla (D), who first took office in 2021 after Kamala Harris (D) was elected vice president.. Sen. Roy Blunt (R), who first took office in 2011, did not seek re-election.[46]. Republicans were defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Elections to the U.S. House will be held on November 5, 2024. That cycle produced nine states with one Democratic and Republican U.S. Ron Johnson's (R-Wis.) and John Thune's (R-S.D.) * Although Sens. Three other races, in North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, are also expected to be closely contested. So based solely on that, Democrats would be winning back seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but when it's not a presidential cycle, that's not always the case either.[98]. Not all eight of those points can necessarily be attributed to the MAGA penalty. In the end, the GOP won four of those 10 seats three of which were in deeply red states like Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota (the other was traditionally swingy Florida) while still losing swing-state seats in Arizona and Nevada. .split-cols-c-list { He also said that he was a "proven Conservative [who will] take the fight to the Senate and save our values, our culture, and our country. [42], Walker was a Hall of Fame professional football player who attended the University of Georgia, represented the U.S. in the 1992 Olympics, and owned two food-supply businesses. Kyrsten Sinema > Arizona. Donald Trump won Ohio by eight percentage points in 2016 and 2020. [74], J.D. Even in the Democratic-leaning environment of 2020, Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points, implying that its true partisan lean is probably even more Republican-leaning. In Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock won 53 percent of independents according to exit polls, though they made up a smaller share (24 percent) of that electorate. Rubio was first elected to the Senate in 2010 to replace retiring incumbent Mel Martinez (R). [18][19], Murkowski highlighted her seniority and said her willingness to work with Democrats helped steer federal funding to Alaska. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema changed her affiliation from Democrat to independent after the 2022 elections. [25], U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and fellow Alaska U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) endorsed Murkowski. That, too, would reduce the odds of 2022 Republican tsunami.[98]. Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the party in power, and the party in power was coming up short. Rob Portman helped broker? Independent Senators Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Angus King (I-Maine) caucus with the Democratic Party. Dennis Misigoy (L), Steven B. Senator. Some disliked GOP candidates positions on abortion; others were repelled by other social and economic stances. In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden (D) won the state over then-incumbent President Donald Trump (R), 49.5% to 48.8%. [57] Cortez Masto also highlighted her vote for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2021 (IRA), a measure she said would reduce healthcare costs for Nevadans. Donald Trump (R) won the state in the 2020 presidential election by a 15.4% margin. Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey (R) did not seek re-election. In 2016, Murkowski was re-elected after defeating second-place finisher Joe Miller (L) 44.4% to 29.2%. A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. List of U.S. Congress incumbents who are not running for re-election in 2022. This was the first time since 1914 that no Senate incumbent who ran lost re-election.[6]. To see a list of all the Congressional special elections referenced in the table above, click [show] at the right. columns: 1; Warnock and Kelly (both Democrats) did not assume office until 2021 . Democrats and Republicans each hold four of the battleground seats going into the elections. Contact us at editor@ballotpedia.org. "[90], Wisconsin was one of two states that held a U.S. Senate election in 2022 with a Republican incumbent that President Joe Biden carried in the 2020 presidential election. In 2016the last time these 34 seats were up for regular electiontwo seats changed party hands. Each side has won very few 21st-century Senate races, either with incumbents or for open seats, in states where the approval rating is lagging for a president of its party. In the general election, Rubio defeated Kendrick B. Meek (D) and Gov. Seven states had senators from different parties in the 117th Congress: Maine, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. The average MOV was 21.3 percentage points for Republicans and 16 percentage points for Democrats. The absolute fealty to Trump is only part of the change this class of candidates would herald. Since none of the candidates received this level of support on November 8 in the general election, a runoff was scheduled to take place on December 6. There are 35 seats up in 2022 - including a special election in Oklahoma - of which 21 are held by the GOP. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r

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