the primary method for associative forecasting is:irvin-parkview funeral home

E. random variation, A. the duration of the repeating patterns D. exponential smoothing The resulting forecast errors for the two are shown in the table. The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality. department store chain. A. Analyze the data and recommend a course of C. eliminating historical data Using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, and assuming the forecast for period 11 was 80, what would B. increased 3. Given the forecast errors of 5, 0, -4, and 3, what is the mean absolute deviation? Explain why forecasts are generally wrong. + # +! C. establish a time horizon the forecast for period 14 be? Each alternative was tested using historical data. Assume an initial exponential forecast of 60 units in period 2 (i.e., no forecast for period 1). 112.A CPA firm has been using the following equation to predict annual demand for tax audits: Yt = 55 + 4t Demand for the past few years is shown below. C. 301. C. This year's forecast would be last year's enrollment. Version 1 8 sensitivity analysis. In exponential smoothing, an alpha of .30 will cause a forecast to react more quickly to a large error than will False Each alternative was tested using historical E. a moving average and a trend factor, In the "additive" model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ______________ adjustment to the The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand. A managerial approach toward forecasting which seeks to actively influence demand is: retroactive: reactive: influential: protracted: proactive. C. lags changes in the data 114 linear regression to develop a predictive model for demand for burial vaults based on sales of caskets. 40, A CPA firm has been using the following equation to predict annual demand for tax audits: Yt = 55 + 4t A) Predict demand for July using each of these methods: A manager wants to choose one of two forecasting alternatives. Forecasts are rarely perfect. 1. Forecasting techniques generally assume an existing causal system that will continue to exist in the future. True.. More accuracy often comes at too high a cost to be worthwhile. B. 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E. all of the above, A. reactive Quantity, Percentage..The additive model simple adds a seasonal adjustment to the de-seasonalized forecast by multiplying it by a season relative or index. A qualitative forecast. C. Delphi technique B. C. moderate following historical data: 122 is the forecast for this year using a four-year simple moving average? : Multiple Choice Questions *52.Forecasts based on judgment and opinion don't includeA.executive opinionB.salesperson opinionC.second opinionsD.customer surveysE.Delphi methods *53.In business, forecasts are the basis for:A.capacity planningB.budgetingC.sales planningD.production planningE.all of the above 57.The two general approaches to forecasting are:A.mathematical and statisticalB.qualitative and quantitativeC.judgmental and qualitativeD.historical and associativeE.precise and approximation *58.Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?A.executive opinionsB.sales force opinionsC.consumer surveysD.the Delphi methodE.time series analysis *69.Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:A.a moving average forecastB.a naive forecastC.an exponentially smoothed forecastD.an associative forecastE.regression analysis *70.For the data given below, what would the naive forecast be for the next period (period #5)?A.58B.62C.59.5D.61E.cannot tell from the data given *74.A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:A.a naive forecastB.a simple moving average forecastC.a centered moving average forecastD.an exponentially smoothed forecastE.an associative forecast *76.Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?A.0B..01C..1D..5E.1.0 **77.Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. False..Most people do not enjoy participating in surveys. Associate techniques use predictor variable. Exponential smoothing is a form of weighted averaging. True.. Forecasting techniques that are based on time series data assume that future values of the series will people enjoy participating in surveys. E. 108. exponential smoothing. 3: 2: 4: 2: 5: 1. The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the ? E. Hindsight, A. a moving average forecast True False. non-linear or involve more than one predictor variable. 113 the data below, develop a forecast for period 6 using a four-period weighted moving average and E. there are only 4 seasons but 30 cycles, A. distinguishing between random and non-random variations A. B. a naive forecast actual. Successful companies often incorporate forecasting models when planning for the future. E. 510. 91. D. Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items. Outline the steps in the forecasting process. 11. Given forecast errors of 5, 0, -4, and 3, what is the bias? C. multiplied by a larger alpha Moving average forecasting techniques do the following: Which is not a characteristic of simple moving averages applied to time series data? centered moving averages. B. Explain. Get full access to Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management, Twelfth Edition and 60K+ other titles, with a free 10-day trial of O'Reilly. C. the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor 0 # +! 71. False MAD is equal to the square root of MSE, which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD. True False, Curvilinear and multiple regression procedures permit us to extend associative models to relationships that are accuracy level can be understood. Are the results acceptable? D. B. expert opinions E. historical data, The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is: B. I am a student who wants to share my notes during my school at college. B. the magnitude of the variation Definition 1 / 26 Forecasts based on time-series (historical) data are referred to as associative forecasts. Analyze the data and recommend a course of action to the manager. *121.A manager uses this equation to predict demand: Yt = 20 + 4t. The sales force can easily distinguish between customer desires and probable actions. True False, The shorter the forecast period, the more accurately the forecasts tend to track what actually happens. True False, Simple linear regression applies to linear relationships with no more than three independent variables. True False, A proactive approach to forecasting views forecasts as probable descriptions of future demand, and requires follows. D. C. independent variable D. Correlation Coefficients D. protracted A forecast method is generally deemed to perform adequately when the errors exhibit an identifiable 103 of simple linear regression analysis assumes that: A. 47. C. eliminating historical data The primary method for associative forecasting is: A. sensitivity analysis B. regression analysis C. simple moving averages D. centered moving averages E. exponential smoothing. / 0 UC bjbjZZ Dh 8h 8h ; 6 + + + + + ? Minimizing the sum of the squared deviations around the line is called: One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to: Detecting non-randomness in errors can be done using: Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called: The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is: Putting forecast errors into perspective is best done using. Given a previous forecast of 140 items, an actual number of returns of 148 items, and a smoothing constant equal to .15, what is the forecast for the next period? **108.A manager is using the equation below to forecast quarterly demand for a product:Yt = 6,000 + 80t where t = 0 at Q2 of last yearQuarter relatives are Q1 = .6, Q2 = .9, Q3 = 1.3, and Q4 = 1.2.What forecasts are appropriate for the last quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year? 109.Over the past five years, a firm's sales have averaged 250 units in the first quarter of each year, 100 units in the second quarter, 150 units in the third quarter, and 300 units in the fourth quarter. A. A C $$1$ 7$ 8$ H$ gdS $1$ 7$ 8$ H$ gdS $1$ 7$ 8$ H$ C. an exponentially smoothed forecast Executive opinion: time series analysis: the Delphi method: sales force opinions: consumer surveys: Time series analysis.. Time series analysis is a quantitative approach. exponential smoothing techniques. The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is: A. sales force opinions B. consumer surveys C. the Delphi method D. time series analysis E. executive opinions the Delphi method E. What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if the forecast for two years Problem 3 The mean absolute deviation (MAD) is used for (a) estimating the trend line (b) eliminating the forecast errors . A. executive opinions B. budgeting Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6? E. none of the above. 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Updated June 24, 2022 New and existing companies tend to function better when they have a visual reference that provides an overview of expected outcomes and trends. A. B. OReilly members experience books, live events, courses curated by job role, and more from OReilly and nearly 200 top publishers. C. irregular variation Production and Operations Management (COMM 225), Students shared 388 documents in this course. B. A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain accurate input from future customers since most Moving average forecasting techniques do the following: A. immediately reflect changing patterns in the data, E. assist when organizations are relocating. C. smooth variations in the data a. predicts the quality of a new product. What are appropriate quarter relatives for this firm's sales? C. short term forecast accuracy B.. C. cost and accuracy The purpose of the forecast should be established first so that the level of detail, amount of resources, and Forecast deliveries for period 11 through 14. Multiple Choice Questions *118.The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data:What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?A.18,750B.19,500C.21,000D.22,000E.22,800 *119.Demand for the last four months was:A) Predict demand for July using each of these methods:1) a 3-period moving average2) exponential smoothing with alpha equal to .20 (use a nave forecast for April for your first forecast)B) If the naive approach had been used to predict demand for April through June, what would MAD have been for those months? 120.A manager wants to choose one of two forecasting alternatives. techniques. Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique? A. reactive The primary method for associative forecasting is: simple moving averages. What was the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for these forecasts?A.100B.200C.400D.500E.800 The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: *141.What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?A.2,000B.2,200C.2,800D.3,000E.none of the above *142.What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?A.2,667B.2,600C.2,500D.2,400E.2,333 *143.What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .4, if last year's smoothed forecast was 2600?A.2,600B.2,760C.2,800D.3,840E.3,000 144.What is the annual rate of change (slope) of the least squares trend line for these data?A.0B.200C.400D.180E.360 145.What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?A.3,600B.3,500C.3,400D.3,300E.3,200 The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: *146.What is this month's forecast using the naive approach?A.100B.160C.130D.140E.120 *147.What is this month's forecast using a four-month weighted moving average with weights of .4, .3, .2, and .1?A.120B.129C.141D.135E.140 *148.What is this month's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if August's forecast was 145?A.144B.140C.142D.148E.163 149.What is the monthly rate of change (slope) of the least squares trend line for these data?A.320B.102C.8D.-0.4E.-8 150.What is this month's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?A.1,250B.128.6C.102D.158E.164 151.Which of the following mechanisms for enhancing profitability is most likely to result from improving short term forecast performance?A.increased inventoryB.reduced flexibilityC.higher-quality productsD.greater customer satisfactionE.greater seasonality 152.Which of the following changes would tend to shorten the time frame for short term forecasting?A.bringing greater variety into the product mixB.increasing the flexibility of the production systemC.ordering fewer weather-sensitive itemsD.adding more special-purpose equipmentE.none of the above 153.Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?A.contracts that require supply chain members to formulate long term forecastsB.penalties for supply chain members that adjust forecastsC.sharing forecasts or demand data across the supply chainD.increasing lead times for critical supply chain membersE.increasing the number of suppliers at critical junctures in the supply chain 154.Inaccuracies in forecasts along the supply chain lead to:A.shortages or excesses of materialsB.reduced customer serviceC.excess capacityD.missed deliveriesE.all of the above 155.Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can bring into forecasting situations?A.what customers are most likely to do in the futureB.what customers most want to do in the futureC.what customers' future plans areD.whether customers are satisfied or dissatisfied with their performance in the pastE.what the salesperson's appropriate sales quota should be Essay Questions *156.What is this year's forecast using the naive approach? *157.What is this year's forecast using a four-year simple moving average? *158.What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .25, if last year's smoothed forecast was 45? 159.What are this and next year's forecasts using the least squares trend line for these data? 160.What is this year's forecast using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.2 and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last year was 56, the forecast for two years ago was 46, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 7? 161.What is the centered moving average for spring two years ago? 162.What is the spring's seasonal relative? 163.What is the linear regression trend line for these data (t = 0 for spring, three years ago)? 164.What is this year's seasonally adjusted forecast for each season? Chapter 03 - Forecasting 3- PAGE 18 O Q This method is particularly useful while doing demand forecasting. MAPs A persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater than or less than the actual values is called. Moving average forecasting techniques is used for(a) immediately reflect changing patterns in the data(b) lead changes in the data(c) smoothening the variations in the data(d) operate independently of recent data. C. series of questionnaires 49. E. eliminated if the MAD is greater than the MSE, A. a naive forecast D. MAD Course Hero is not sponsored or endorsed by any college or university. Snapsolve any problem by taking a picture. B. MRP 8 w L L ?

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